The 2025 season comes down to one final weekend. After the Qatar result blew the fight wide open, the Abu Dhabi title showdown features three contenders separated by just 16 points. Lando Norris leads the standings on 408, with Max Verstappen on 396 and Oscar Piastri on 392. One race. Three drivers. One world champion.
Norris could have wrapped it up in Qatar, but McLaren’s strategic misfire under the early Safety Car pushed the fight all the way to Yas Marina. Now, for the first time since 2010, three drivers enter the finale with a mathematical shot at the crown.
Below is the full breakdown of how each driver can win the championship, and what results will eliminate their rivals.
Championship standings before Abu Dhabi
- LANDO NORRIS – 408 pt
- MAX VERSTAPPEN- 396 pt
- OSCAR PIASTRI- 392 pt
How Lando Norris becomes World Champion
For Norris, the maths is simple.
- If he finishes on the podium, he is champion. First, second or third guarantees him the title regardless of what Verstappen or Piastri do.
If he finishes outside the top three, things get more complicated.
- If Norris is fourth or fifth, Verstappen must not win. It doesn’t matter where Piastri finishes.
- If Norris is sixth or seventh, neither Verstappen nor Piastri can win the race. A victory for either one eliminates him.
- If Norris finishes eighth, Verstappen must be outside the top two, and Piastri must not win.
- If Norris finishes ninth, Verstappen must be outside the top three, and Piastri must not win.
- If Norris finishes tenth or lower, Verstappen must miss the top three entirely, and Piastri must miss the top two.
The mission is clear. A podium makes him champion. Anything else risks opening the door.
How Max Verstappen can win the championship
Verstappen’s win in Qatar was the lifeline he needed. From 104 points behind mid-season, he now trails Norris by just twelve.
To become champion again, he must finish near the front and hope Norris slips.
- If Verstappen wins in Abu Dhabi, Norris must finish fourth or lower. Piastri is eliminated automatically if Verstappen wins.
- If Verstappen finishes second, Norris must finish eighth or worse, and Piastri must not win.
- If Verstappen finishes third, Norris must finish ninth or worse, and Piastri must not win.
- If Verstappen finishes fourth or lower, he cannot win the championship.
He needs a big Sunday and help from McLaren’s misfortune.
How Oscar Piastri can win the championship
Piastri said it himself: “A lot needs to go my way.” But the Australian is still in it.
To win the title, Piastri must finish first or second. Anything lower eliminates his chances instantly.
- If Piastri wins, Norris must finish fifth or worse. Verstappen is eliminated regardless.
- If Piastri finishes second, Norris must finish tenth or worse, and Verstappen must finish fourth or lower.
Piastri needs near perfection from himself and a major collapse from Norris.
Why the Finale Is So Close
McLaren’s refusal to pit under the Qatar Safety Car flipped the entire title picture. The team believed staying out would allow them to control track position, but the 25 lap tyre limit meant their strategy boxed them in. Verstappen gained a free stop, cycled ahead through pit sequence, and never let go.
Piastri’s pace was strong enough to finish second anyway, but the win had already slipped away. Norris struggled for rhythm all race and paid the price.
Instead of a smooth title celebration, McLaren now face Verstappen breathing down their necks and Piastri still mathematically alive.
Abu Dhabi becomes the tightest three way decider since Vettel, Alonso and Webber in 2010.
Bottom Line
Norris still holds the cards.
Verstappen has momentum.
Piastri has one final shot.
A podium guarantees Norris the title. Verstappen can steal it with the right combination. Piastri needs a miracle, but miracles do happen in Formula 1.
Three drivers. One race. The Abu Dhabi finale decides everything.
Select images for states before and after
3 Comments